A new sequence has just started. When institutions of the Republic are captured by the ruling party the way they are in India today, the opposition is forced to find alternative ways and means. Rahul Gandhi invested first in parliament, where he denounced attacks against democracy and the nexus between the Modi government and new oligarchs, but that was clearly not enough: not only has parliament been emasculated (to such an extent that some of the debates which took place there during the Emergency compare favourably with what we see today), but Lok Sabha speeches are not reported in the “mainstream” media anymore.
The leader of the opposition needed to go to the people, to interact directly with those who otherwise would continue to ignore reality because of constant disinformation. The Bharat Jodo Yatra was also a way to remobilise the Congress cadres in the wake of the recent party elections. In spite of very poor media coverage (qualitatively as well as quantitatively), this 4,000-km-long yatra has been a success: Congress was on its way back to its pre-independence roots, as a social movement bringing together all kinds of people, when the dominant majoritarian doxa tends to exclude so many citizens from the official nation.
The next moves
The next step was predictable: Rahul Gandhi “had” to be neutralised. The pretext that has been used – defamation of the Modis of the world – is the only thing one could find. It sounds paradoxical given the kind of sarcasm Narendra Modi himself resorted to vis-à-vis “Pasta behen”, the “Jersey cow” and “Maun Mohan Singh”. But there was no better alibi available. It was useful simply because MPs sentenced to two years of jail can be disqualified – and the objective was to remove Rahul Gandhi from parliament.
This move reflects the extreme nervousness of the rulers who clearly apprehend new discussions on the relations between Gautam Adani and Narendra Modi in parliament, at a time when the business community, in India and abroad, is holding its breath. Moves of that kind are always Plan Bs – to avoid the worse. But this exercise in damage control will have adverse consequences.
Blowback
First, opposition leaders are not sentenced to jail for minor crimes like this one in liberal democracies. India, therefore, is weakening its claim of being the “mother of democracy” and the “Guru of the word”: the country is diluting its soft power six months before the G20 summit when it was supposed to promote this image.
Secondly, like in Turkey, Israel, Hungary and Poland, radical moves like this one foster the unity of the opposition. Rivals of Rahul Gandhi, including Arvind Kejriwal, are now realising the existential risk that this regime is representing for all dissenters – including them, something the arrest of Manish Sisodia had already made clear. When opposition leaders close ranks, the task of authoritarian leaders become more complicated: their polarisation strategy, in a way, boomerangs. This new situation “forces” them to become even more illiberal, except if they can co-opt new supporters: whether the Jyotiraditya Scindia’s “model”/syndrome can be replicated will be an important variable to factor in for assessing India’s political situation in the coming weeks and months. But leaders of state parties, not only in Delhi and Punjab, but also in Bihar, in UP (where Mayawati may return to active politics one day), West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand and Kerala may join those of Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu because the order of the day may now be to close ranks. The results of the coming elections in Karnataka (and then in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan) will of course also determine the scenario of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Lastly, the disqualification of Rahul Gandhi (and his possible imprisonment) may be counterproductive for the country’s rulers.
In case he is jailed, it may result in the shift of the victimisation repertoire from one side of the political spectrum to the other. Since 2002, Narendra Modi projects himself as a victim of the establishment represented by the “liberals”, “Lutyens Delhi-ites”, the “Khan market gang” and their spokespersons (including the NDTV of yesteryears). He claimed to embody the suffering of the plebeians who are also the direct casualties of these elite groups, as a “chaiwallah” and an OBC. This repertoire may not be audible anymore if the real victim is none other than Rahul Gandhi, the great-grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru who spent more than nine years of his life in jail and made many sacrifices for the cause of India’s freedom.